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Investment Outlook
Looking ahead: Opportunity in middle market private equity
After a decade with interest rates near zero, investors are now pivoting from a world of abundant capital to a tightening market for financing. With worries of recession, rising rates, inflation, geopolitical conflict and more, private equity managers in the U.S. middle market are bracing for continued macroeconomic uncertainty in 2023.
Our private equity teams have developed a strategy to navigate the year ahead and we anticipate greater use of equity co-investment to right-size transactions. In our many discussions with U.S. middle market private equity sponsors (GPs) and fellow investors (LPs), we identified the questions top of mind for all.
Five Questions for 2023:
- Should LPs continue to support the U.S. middle market when large buyouts may show lower dispersion of returns?
- What are your expectations for the dealmaking environment in 2023?
- Are private equity portfolio valuations due for a downgrade?
- The pace of change has accelerated in all areas, from deal flow, to fundraising, to co-investment processes. How do you see this dynamic creating opportunity?
- When investors look back at industry growth, technology and healthcare have been clear winners over time. Looking ahead, what sectors will remain attractive?
Private capital can play an important role in portfolio construction as it helps create new exposures within a traditional portfolio while also increasing overall return potential.
Related articles
Churchill’s Ken Kencel on private debt fundraising and why large private credit managers are best placed to prosper in the current macro environment.
For over a decade, including through COVID-19, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets.
Churchill’s Mickey Weatherston discusses ESG integration, performance assessment, data priorities, and the need for a harmonized industry approach.
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Endnotes
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, derivatives risk, dollar roll transaction risk and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Below investment grade or high yield debt securities are subject to liquidity risk and heightened credit risk.
Foreign investments involve additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. Please note investments in private debt, including leveraged loans, middle market loans, and mezzanine debt, are subject to various risk factors, including credit risk, liquidity risk and interest rate risk.
This information represents the opinion of Nuveen, LLC and its investment specialists and is not intended to be a forecast of future events and or guarantee of any future result. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. There is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time.
Nuveen, LLC provides investment advisory services through its investment specialists. Churchill Asset Management is a registered investment advisor and an affiliate of Nuveen, LLC.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.
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