Macro market monitor

Looking at the big picture

The Nuveen Macro Market Monitor provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. In times of elevated volatility, it is helpful to see how backward and forward-looking metrics feed into broader predictions and our outlook. With a consistent scorecard, our investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy. This list is by no means exhaustive, but contains indicative data on the direction of the economy and inflation, as well as metrics measuring consumers, business confidence and equity earnings.

Macro markets at a glance

Positive Neutral Negative

• Inflation: Long-term inflation expectations have moderated somewhat, and as such we have upgraded our outlook to a more neutral stance. Core PCE, however, remains elevated.
• U.S. monetary policy: U.S. monetary policy remains relatively unchanged, with the fed funds rate and financial conditions staying generally consistent. We now expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026. 
• Economic activity: Economic activity remains mixed, and consumer expectations continue to decline. Housing starts have deteriorated, which could become a drag.
• Employment: Employment has become a bright spot in the economy. Claims remain low while openings remain robust.
• Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has declined slightly across both broad and individual measures.
• U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. equity fundamentals have strengthened through earnings season. While price to earnings ratios remain elevated, revisions to earnings have been positive.