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Investment Outlook

Macro market monitor

Saira Malik
Head of Equities and Fixed Income & Chief Investment Officer, Nuveen
Macro market monitor gauge
Listen to this insight
~ 3 minutes long

Looking at the big picture

The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.

Inflation: Inflation expectations remain relatively elevated, and we remain cautious on future inflation data.

U.S. monetary policy: U.S. monetary monetary policy remains relatively unchanged, with the fed funds rate and financial conditions staying generally consistent despite recent rate cuts. We expect some additional easing in 2026.

Economic activity: Economic activity remains mixed, but consumer expectations have remained depressed. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.

Employment: Employment has started to show some cracks. We will continue to monitor the employment situation carefully as post-government shutdown data emerges.

Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has sharply deteriorated, for both individuals and broader sentiment.

U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. equity fundamentals remain mixed. While price to earnings ratios remain extremely elevated, revisions to earnings have been relatively positive.

Nuveen Macro Market Monitor informs our discussions
  Positive   Neutral   Negative        

 

Category  Gauge Percentile Rank (vs Past 20 Years, Higher Rank = Potential Headwind to Markets)
Inflation
Long-term inflation expectations 39
U.S. Monetary Policy
Fed funds rate 73
Financial conditions 10
Economic Activity
Consumer expectations 90
Household debt service ratio 24
Housing starts 37
Economic surprises 35
Employment
Jobless claims 30
Job openings 21
Investor Sentiment Broad investor sentiment 76
Individual investor survey 75
U.S. Equity Fundamentals
S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio 96
S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth 26
Revisions to expected earnings 15

Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 10 Dec 2026. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. The views above are for informational purposes only and do not reflect the experience or performance of any Nuveen product, strategy or service. The color scale is based on each metric’s percentile rank as compared to its 20-year average. A lower percentile ranking indicates a positive or less of a concern to its impact on the economy while a higher percentile ranking indicates a negative or more of a concern to its impact on the economy. Green: 1st-33rd percentile; Yellow: 34th-67th percentile; Red: 68th-100th percentile.

Representative indexes: long-term inflation expectations: U.S. 5yr 5yr forward breakeven; fed funds rate: federal funds target rate - upper bound; financial conditions: GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index; consumer expectations: U of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index; household debt service ratio: household debt payment as % of disposable income; housing starts: U.S. new privately owned housing units started by structure total SAAR; economic surprises: Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index; jobless claims: U.S. initial jobless claims; job openings: U.S. job openings by industry total SA; broad investor sentiment: Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator Signal*; individual investor survey: AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bullish Minus Bearish Readings; S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio: S&P 500 Forward FY1 P/E; S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth: S&P 500 FY1 EPS Growth; revisions to expected earnings: S&P 500 3-Month Change in FY1 EPS.

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