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Looking at the big picture
The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.
Inflation: Long-term inflation expectations remain modestly above the Fed’s target of 2%.
U.S. monetary policy: U.S. Monetary policy improves as financial conditions have eased, catapulting from the 41st to the 19th percentile.
Economic activity: Economic activity remains in the yellow category. Moderate improvement in consumer expectations, offset by weakness in housing starts and economic surprises.
Employment: Employment remains green, slight increase in jobless claims balanced by a slight increase with job openings.
Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment also remains green with no change to broad investor sentiment or individual investor survey.
U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. Equity Fundamentals have worsened due the equity market rally. The S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio has increased, while the S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth moderately falling. Revisions to expected earnings, however, remains unchanged.
Nuveen Macro Market Monitor informs our discussions
| Positive | Neutral | Negative |
;
| Category | Gauge | Percentile Rank (vs Past 20 Years, Higher Rank = Potential Headwind to Markets) | Current | Unit | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation |
Long-term inflation expectations | 46 | 2.30 | Percent | Daily |
| U.S. Monetary Policy |
Fed funds rate | 81 | 4.50 | Percent | Daily |
| Financial conditions | 19 | 99.1 | Value | Daily | |
| Economic Activity |
Consumer expectations | 88 | 58.4 | Survey | Monthly |
| Household debt service ratio | 23 | 11.3 | Percent | Quarterly | |
| Housing starts | 49 | 1256 | Thousands | Monthly | |
| Economic surprises | 73 | -20.8 | Points | Daily | |
| Employment |
Jobless claims | 28 | 245 | Thousands | Weekly |
| Job openings | 21 | 7.4 | Millions | Monthly | |
| Investor Sentiment | Broad investor sentiment | 14 | 1.0 | Survey | Daily |
| Individual investor survey | 9 | -22.1 | Survey | Weekly | |
| U.S. Equity Fundamentals |
S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio | 93 | 21.5 | Multiple | Daily |
| S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth |
55 | 9.5 | Percent | Daily | |
| Revisions to expected earnings | 77 | 0.3 | Percent | Daily | |
|
Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 7 May 2025. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. The views above are for informational purposes only and do not reflect the experience or performance of any Nuveen product, strategy or service. The color scale is based on each metric’s percentile rank as compared to its 20-year average. A lower percentile ranking indicates a positive or less of a concern to its impact on the economy while a higher percentile ranking indicates a negative or more of a concern to its impact on the economy. Green: 1st-33rd percentile; Yellow: 34th-67th percentile; Red: 68th-100th percentile. Representative indexes: long-term inflation expectations: U.S. 5yr 5yr forward breakeven; fed funds rate: federal funds target rate - upper bound; financial conditions: GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index; consumer expectations: U of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index; household debt service ratio: household debt payment as % of disposable income; housing starts: U.S. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started by Structure Total SAAR; economic surprises: Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index; jobless claims: U.S. initial jobless claims; job openings: U.S. job openings by industry total; broad investor sentiment: Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator Signal; individual investor survey: AII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bullish Minus Bearish Readings; S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio: S&P 500 Forward FY1 P/E; S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth: S&P 500 FY1 EPS Growth; revisions to expected earnings: S&P 500 3-Month Change in FY1 EPS. |
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