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Investment Outlook

Macro market monitor

Saira Malik
Head of Equities and Fixed Income & Chief Investment Officer, Nuveen
Macro market monitor gauge
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Looking at the big picture

The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.

Inflation: Inflation expectations have risen, and we remain cautious on future inflation data.

U.S. monetary policy: U.S. monetary policy remains relatively unchanged, with the fed funds rate and financial conditions staying consistent with the previous reading. We continue to expect two fed funds rate cuts in 2025.

Economic activity: Economic activity remains mixed but economic surprises have continued to deteriorate. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.

Employment: Employment remains robust, however; jobless claims have climbed, a trend we will monitor, while job openings remain generally unchanged.

Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has also declined, with broad investor sentiment falling away on tariff headlines, and individual investor survey data has also fallen from its peak.

U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. equity fundamentals remain mixed. While price to earnings ratios remain extremely elevated, revisions to earnings have been relatively positive.

Nuveen Macro Market Monitor informs our discussions
  Positive   Neutral   Negative        

 

;
Category  Gauge Percentile Rank (vs Past 20 Years, Higher Rank = Potential Headwind to Markets) Current Unit Update Frequency
Inflation
Long-term inflation expectations 58 2.40 Percent Daily
U.S. Monetary Policy
Fed funds rate 81 4.50 Percent Daily
Financial conditions 12 98.8 Value Daily
Economic Activity
Consumer expectations 87 58.6 Survey Monthly
Household debt service ratio 22 11.2 Percent Quarterly
Housing starts 42 1321 Thousands Monthly
Economic surprises 44 13.4 Points Daily
Employment
Jobless claims 14 218 Thousands Weekly
Job openings 21 7.4 Millions Monthly
Investor Sentiment Broad investor sentiment 87 -1.0 Survey Daily
Individual investor survey 56 7.3 Survey Weekly
U.S. Equity Fundamentals
S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio 99 22.6 Multiple Daily
S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth
46 11.1 Percent Daily
Revisions to expected earnings 40 3.0 Percent Daily

Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 30 Jul 2025. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. The views above are for informational purposes only and do not reflect the experience or performance of any Nuveen product, strategy or service. The color scale is based on each metric’s percentile rank as compared to its 20-year average. A lower percentile ranking indicates a positive or less of a concern to its impact on the economy while a higher percentile ranking indicates a negative or more of a concern to its impact on the economy. Green: 1st-33rd percentile; Yellow: 34th-67th percentile; Red: 68th-100th percentile.

Representative indexes: long-term inflation expectations: U.S. 5yr 5yr forward breakeven; fed funds rate: federal funds target rate - upper bound; financial conditions: GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index; consumer expectations: U of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index; household debt service ratio: household debt payment as % of disposable income; housing starts: U.S. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started by Structure Total SAAR; economic surprises: Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index; jobless claims: U.S. initial jobless claims; job openings: U.S. job openings by industry total; broad investor sentiment: Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator Signal; individual investor survey: AII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bullish Minus Bearish Readings; S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio: S&P 500 Forward FY1 P/E; S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth: S&P 500 FY1 EPS Growth; revisions to expected earnings: S&P 500 3-Month Change in FY1 EPS.

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