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Investment Outlook
Macro market monitor
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~ 4 minutes long
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Looking at the big picture
The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.
Inflation: Long-term inflation expectations forecast for inflation to decline and move closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.
U.S. monetary policy: U.S. Monetary policy remains relatively unchanged with Fed funds rate unchanged and financial conditions slightly improving.
Economic activity: Economic activity remains yellows with consumer expectations and housing starts slightly worsening, while household debt service ratios and economic surprises staying the same.
Employment: Employment as a whole has marginally weakened. Jobless claims and job openings saw a small drop of the 3rd and 5th percentile respectively; however, the category remains green.
Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment remains green as well, with no change in broad investor sentiment but a slight downward shift in individual investor survey.
U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. Equity Fundamentals has worsened and fallen into the red category. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio remains unchanged, with expected earnings growth slightly worsening, and revisions to expected earnings seeing the biggest change from the 52nd percentile down to the 77th.
Nuveen Macro Market Monitor informs our discussions
| Positive | Neutral | Negative |
;
| Category | Gauge | Percentile Rank (vs Past 20 Years, Higher Rank = Potential Headwind to Markets) | Current | Unit | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation |
Long-term inflation expectations | 36 | 2.20 | Percent | Daily |
| U.S. Monetary Policy |
Fed funds rate | 82 | 4.50 | Percent | Daily |
| Financial conditions | 41 | 99.4 | Value | Daily | |
| Economic Activity |
Consumer expectations | 99 | 47.2 | Survey | Monthly |
| Household debt service ratio | 23 | 11.3 | Percent | Quarterly | |
| Housing starts | 42 | 1324 | Thousands | Monthly | |
| Economic surprises | 62 | -6.9 | Points | Daily | |
| Employment |
Jobless claims | 21 | 228 | Thousands | Weekly |
| Job openings | 23 | 7.2 | Millions | Monthly | |
| Investor Sentiment | Broad investor sentiment | 14 | 1.0 | Survey | Daily |
| Individual investor survey | 9 | -22.1 | Millions | Weekly | |
| U.S. Equity Fundamentals |
S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio | 87 | 20.5 | Multiple | Daily |
| S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth |
44 | 11.8 | Percent | Daily | |
| Revisions to expected earnings | 77 | 0.4 | Percent | Daily | |
|
Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 7 May 2025. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. The views above are for informational purposes only and do not reflect the experience or performance of any Nuveen product, strategy or service. The color scale is based on each metric’s percentile rank as compared to its 20-year average. A lower percentile ranking indicates a positive or less of a concern to its impact on the economy while a higher percentile ranking indicates a negative or more of a concern to its impact on the economy. Green: 1st-33rd percentile; Yellow: 34th-67th percentile; Red: 68th-100th percentile. Representative indexes: long-term inflation expectations: U.S. 5yr 5yr forward breakeven; fed funds rate: federal funds target rate - upper bound; financial conditions: GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index; consumer expectations: U of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index; household debt service ratio: household debt payment as % of disposable income; housing starts: U.S. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started by Structure Total SAAR; economic surprises: Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index; jobless claims: U.S. initial jobless claims; job openings: U.S. job openings by industry total; broad investor sentiment: Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator Signal; individual investor survey: AII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bullish Minus Bearish Readings; S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio: S&P 500 Forward FY1 P/E; S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth: S&P 500 FY1 EPS Growth; revisions to expected earnings: S&P 500 3-Month Change in FY1 EPS. |
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