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The municipal market returned -6.35% in the third quarter, the worst quarterly showing since 1981, driven largely by rate dislocation rather than credit deterioration. Credit fundamentals and inflows remain strong. With yields at the 99th percentile — last seen in 2008 — we view this as a compelling entry point.
Key takeaways
- Yields hit historic highs. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index yields 4.78% — the 99th percentile for yields dating back to 2000 — meaning that yields on 01 October are in the highest 1% of all observations over the past two decades.1
- Credit fundamentals remain sound. The selloff was rate-driven, not a credit event. State and local revenues are sound, and elevated investor inflows remain on track for the second highest annual level on record.
- History favors patient investors. In the past, when yields on the Bloomberg Municipal Index exceeded 4%, the ensuing three-year cumulative return averaged 18.9%, or 5.9% annualized.2 This demonstrates long-term income — not rate timing — has driven investment performance.
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1 Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., Bloomberg Municipal Index yield to worst, 01 Jan 2000 – 30 Sep 2026.2 Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 29 Sep 2006 – 30 Sep 2026.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her financial professionals.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Bond insurance guarantees only the payment of principal and interest on the bond when due, and not the value of the bonds themselves, which will fluctuate with the bond market and the financial success of the issuer and the insurer. No representation is made as to an insurer’s ability to meet their commitments. This information should not replace an investor’s consultation with a financial professional regarding their tax situation.
Nuveen is not a tax advisor. Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Taxable-equivalent yields are based on the highest individual marginal federal tax rate of 37%, plus the 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income. Individual tax rates may vary. Inflation rate used is the PCE Deflator, which is removed from the after tax income of the 3 month T-bill yield, resulting in an after tax and after inflation rate for cash. Yield to worst (YTW) is the lowest possible annualized return an investor can receive on a bond, assuming the issuer does not default and exercises any embedded provisions like early redemption or call options.
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