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Fixed income

Waiting to extend: A forward-looking approach to fixed income investing

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Investors sometimes want to invest with a money manager who will shorten portfolio duration in advance of an expected increase in interest rates. The problem with any strategy that depends on predicting changes in interest rates is that you can be right about the direction, but wrong about the timing. As a result, your return could be less than you would have received by simply investing in a long-term bond. Here we offer a tool for quantifying the consequences of delaying one’s purchase of long-term bonds, and for setting a target that interest rates must reach in order to justify such a delay.

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Nuveen receives multiple Environmental Finance Awards 2024.
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In the first quarter, the taxable municipal bond market displayed relative strength in the face of rising Treasury yields. The U.S. economy remains strong, and municipal credit fundamentals are benefiting from a resilient consumer and strong labor market. Limited new issue supply and strong demand for high quality, long duration assets led to relative outperformance for taxable municipal bonds. We believe demand could strengthen as investors consider shifting to longer duration municipals ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
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