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Recent shifts in federal funding and policy are creating ripple effects across several key sectors of the municipal bond market. Areas such as higher education, public transportation and energy are seeing varying impacts. As federal support evolves, these sectors may face new financial realities, prompting closer analysis from both investors and policymakers.
Highlights
- The higher education sector faces threats, highlighting the need for deep credit research.
- New York Metro Transit Authority capital funding is challenged by a congestion pricing showdown with the federal government.
- The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power faces legal action related to the wildfires.
- Energy producing state and local governments feel the impact of federal policy changes and evolving electricity demands.
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Endnotes
Sources
California Budget
AccuWeacther estimates more than 250 billion in damages and economic loss from LA wildfires
Update: LA Wildfire Insurance-Loss Estimates Approach $40 Billion
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection | CAL FIRE
Key Statistics & Data - The California FAIR Plan
Every California homeowner could pay tab for LA wildfires - E&E News by POLITICO
FEMA National Disaster Recovery Framework, Third Edition
Congressional Research Service: A Brief Overview of FEMA’s Public Assistance Program
National Association of Counties: Counting the Costs of Post-Disaster Reimbursement: County Fiscal Impacts of Federal Disaster Response
S&P
https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=60624135&From=SNP_CRS
https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=60475956&From=SNP_CRS
Moody’s
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Ratings-revises-outlooks-to-negative-from-stable-for-the-Rating-Action--PR_908994496
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Ratings-revises-outlook-to-negative-from-stable-for-Los-Rating-Action--PR_908996641
https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_908992979
LADWP
https://www.ladwpnews.com/january-22-2025-evening-update-ladwps-windstorm-and-wildfire-response/
J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence email from 1/29/2025
Los Angeles Times (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-05/lausd-sets-aside-2-2-billion-to-rebuild-burned-campuses-and-make-schools-climate-resilient)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2025/01/14/la-fires-schools-destroyed/77692692007/
Los Angeles FY24 CAFR
New York Times, California’s High-Risk Insurer Gets $1 Billion Bailout After L.A. Fires,2/11/2025
The Wall Street Journal, To Help Pay for L.A. Fires, California Will Collect $1 Billion From Insurers, 2/11/2025
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Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Bond insurance guarantees only the payment of principal and interest on the bond when due, and not the value of the bonds themselves, which will fluctuate with the bond market and the financial success of the issuer and the insurer. No representation is made as to an insurer’s ability to meet their commitments.
This information should not replace an investor’s consultation with a financial professional regarding their tax situation. Nuveen is not a tax advisor. Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
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