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New York: Bolstering reserves for a rainy day
New York State is a prolific issuer of municipal debt. Heavy dependence on the financial services industry persists, and the downstate economy has been the state’s growth engine. As a sovereign entity, the state has a variety of tools at its disposal to maintain fiscal stability, including, but not limited to, raising taxes, reducing or deferring expenditures, and engaging in short-term borrowing.
New York is a major issuer of municipal bonds
New York State participates extensively in the municipal market. Issuance of new municipal debt in New York State, including state and local issues, registered $49 billion in 2022, according to The Bond Buyer. That represented 13% of 2022 issuance nationwide, and made New York State the largest issuer of municipal debt in the nation that year (surpassing California and Texas). Such a dependence on the capital markets reduces the risk that New York State would imperil its access to the market by defaulting on any of its debt. A rating reduction is more probable than an outright default.
As is the case with all states, the state of New York itself is not authorized to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. New York State does, however, allow most of its political subdivisions (with the exception of school districts) to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. Even so, New York State has a track record of imposing state financial control boards on its troubled subdivisions before things reach such a point. Examples of this include New York City in the 1970s, Yonkers in the 1980s, and Buffalo in the early 2000s. While a government entity can default without filing Chapter 9 (and, conversely, file Chapter 9 and continue to pay its bonded debt), New York State is nowhere near that for reasons outlined below.
The state itself issues debt under a variety of programs, including general obligations and dedicated revenue obligations. Most New York State debt is well-secured.
The state’s general obligation (GO) bonds carry the state’s strongest security pledge. New York State GO bonds are rated Aa1 by Moody’s, AA+ by Standard and Poor’s and AA+ by Fitch. Prior to issuance, GO debt of the state of New York must be approved by the citizens of New York State in a general election. Under Article VII, Section 16 of the New York State constitution, if state GO debt service is not paid, the state controller is required to set aside sufficient funds from the first revenues received by the general fund to pay that debt service. New York State GO debt does not need a formal appropriation or enacted budget to get paid, and, in essence, enjoys a constitutionally protected first lien on taxes levied on the 10th largest economy in the world.
Two largest debt programs are secured by dedicated taxes
However, most debt issued by the state of New York is not GO debt. The state’s two largest debt programs are secured by dedicated taxes – the personal income tax bonds and the sales tax bonds. Strong set-aside mechanisms and bondholder protection provisions are included in both programs. The personal income tax (PIT) bonds are the state’s largest borrowing program, representing approximately 78% of the state-supported debt. PIT bonds are secured by a set-aside of 50% of the state’s personal income tax revenues.
FY22 pledged PIT revenues covered FY22’s annual debt service payment by 3.77 times. This is low by the program’s history, due to short-term borrowing in FY21 to help the state cope with pandemic-related issues. As a result, debt service expense jumped sharply from $4.1 billion in FY19 to $10.6 billion and $9.3 billion in FY21 and FY22, respectively. All the short-term debt has been retired, and annual debt service will return to the $5 billion range going forward, with coverage projected to remain above 6.0x through FY27.
The New York State comptroller indicates that PIT revenues have come in 16.9% lower in FY23, as opposed to FY22, partially due to a decline in year-end bonuses in the financial services industry, the acceleration of the middle-class tax rate cuts and the volatility in financial markets throughout most of 2022.
The sales tax bonds are secured by a set-aside of two cents of the of the state’s four cent sales tax revenue. FY22 pledged sales tax revenues covered projected maximum annual debt service by 6.70 times. The state comptroller estimates that sales tax revenues increased 7.7% in FY23. At one point, New York State mostly issued debt secured by annual appropriations. With the advent of the PIT and sales tax programs, use of appropriation debt has been greatly reduced.
New York’s debt load is heavy
In relation to other states, New York State is considered heavily indebted. New York State has the second highest amount of tax-supported debt outstanding at $76.8 billion, according to Moody’s. On a per capita basis, the state’s debt burden is fifth highest among the 50 states at $3,871 versus the Moody’s median of $1,179. Net tax-supported debt as a percentage of personal income was seventh highest in the nation, at 5.1%, versus the Moody’s median of 2.1%. Net tax-supported debt as a percentage of state GDP was tied for the ninth highest in the nation, at 4.1%, versus the Moody’s median of 2.1%. All of these ratios have improved since FY13.
Despite being more heavily indebted than most states, principal and interest on New York State’s bonded debt comprised only 3.4% of the state’s total governmental funds’ expenditures in FY22. This has as much to do with New York State’s level of total expenditures being high as it does with the state’s actual debt service expense being low. Taking New York State’s total governmental funds’ expenses in FY22 ($238.4 billion) and dividing them by the current population (20.2 million) produces an expenditure per capita of $11,801. The same ratio for Florida, with a larger population, is $4,829. It’s $12,621 for California, and $5,764 for Texas. No one can credibly accuse New York State of being a bare-bones, low-cost provider. This might suggest room for economizing before the state would move to impair debt service.
The state’s two largest debt programs are secured by dedicated taxes — the personal income tax bonds and the sales tax bonds.
A balanced budget is required
The New York State constitution requires that the governor submit a balanced budget, and New York State law requires that the legislature enact a balanced budget. The budget is due by the start of the state’s fiscal year, which begins April 1. Because New York State’s politics and budget adoption process are sometimes chaotic, New York State has often missed the mandated April 1 deadline and adopted its budget late.
The FY23 budget was signed nine days late, and the FY2024 budget was signed more than a month late. In years when the budget was delayed, the legislature enacted a separate debt service bill by March 31 to ensure timely, uninterrupted payment of the state’s debt obligations. The rest of the budget may be months late, but historically New York State has always provided for the punctual payment of its public debt. We expect that will continue to be the case going forward.
New York State’s general fund revenue held up much better than anticipated in FY22. The state’s general fund posted an $11.3 billion surplus in FY22, equal to 16.5% of general fund revenues. General fund tax revenues came in approximately $15.1 billion (36.8%) ahead of the initial estimate. In addition, general fund expenditures came in $2.8 billion lower than initially budgeted.
As a result, the total general fund balance increased to a strong 46.1% of general fund revenues. Tax collections increased in every category compared to FY21. PIT collections were $15.8 billion (28.7%) higher than FY21. Consumption/use tax collections grew by $3.5 billion due to a recovery in sales tax collections, which were depressed in 2020 by taxpayers’ behavioral responses to pandemic closures and stay-at-home orders. Higher business tax collections ($18.9 billion) were driven mainly by pass-through entity tax (PTET) collections ($16.4 billion) and strong corporate franchise tax (CFT) gross receipts.
New York State’s pensions have traditionally been well funded.
Federal grants in FY22 were $17.2 billion higher than FY21. This increase includes the net increase in extraordinary federal aid to the state ($12.75 billion in American Rescue Plan aid), and other pandemic related aid, including education aid and emergency rental assistance, as well as growth in ordinary federal operating aid.
The $222.2 billion FY23 budget was adopted nine days late, on 09 April 2022. It was $13.3 billion, or 6.4%, larger than the adopted FY22 budget. Unlike FY22, it contained no major tax hikes (FY22 budget contained numerous tax hikes, including significant tax increases on high wage earners). The FY23 budget assumed continued, but slowing, national economic growth. Among other things, the FY23 budget increased aid to local school districts by $2.1 billion (to $30.3 billion), a 7.5% increase over FY22, and the highest level of state aid ever. New York State also enacted a gas tax holiday that suspended the state’s 16 cent per gallon gas levy from June 1 through December 31.
Preliminary numbers released by the New York State comptroller indicate that FY23 will post another surplus. According to the comptroller’s March 2023 State Cash Report, total tax receipts in FY23 came in $14.0 billion ahead of the enacted FY23 budget, but $9.5 billion (or 7.8%) behind FY22. The year-over-year decline was attributed primarily to a decline in personal income tax receipts, which came in 16.9% lower than the prior year.
However, personal income taxes came in $11.8 billion ahead of the enacted budget, and business taxes came in $636.4 million ahead of original estimates. Sales taxes came in $1.0 billion ahead of initial budget estimates. That performance was bolstered by $2.35 billion of federal funds from the American Rescue Plan State Fiscal Relief Program. As a result, the general fund increased by roughly $10.4 billion at the end of the fiscal year, and deposits of $2.75 billion and $183 million were made to the rainy day and tax stabilization reserve funds, respectively, increasing its rainy day reserves to $6.3 billion.
The $229 billion FY24 budget was adopted more than a month late on 03 May 2023. It is roughly 3.9% larger than FY23 and contains no major tax hikes. Among other things, the enacted budget increases the maximum balance of the rainy day fund to 25% of general fund spending, and maximum annual deposits to 15% of general fund spending. The increased limits are estimated to permit the state to increase its maximum allowable rainy day reserves by $10.7 billion based on the most recent FY24 forecast.
It is unclear at this time what additional contributions the state will make toward its statutory reserve fund. Revenue concerns persist early into the new fiscal year, as April tax collections totaled approximately $10.9 billion, a 39.9% decrease from last April and $4.4 billion lower than the Department of Budget’s (DOB) projections. The decline is mostly attributed to PIT collections coming in 49.4% below last year, or 39.1% lower than the DOB’s projections for April.
New York State’s pensions have traditionally been well funded. The funded ratios for the Employee Retirement System (ERS) and the Teacher’s Retirement System (TRS) were 102.9% and 113.0%, respectively, as of FY22. New York State is not pressured in that regard relative to so many other states. New York State’s total fixed costs, including debt service, plus pension contributions, plus retirement health care (commonly referred to as other post-employment benefits or OPEB) are low at 5.3% of total governmental funds’ expenditures in FY22.
New York is a high wealth state
New York State is a wealthy state. For 2022, New York State’s per capita income ($78,089) was fourth highest among the 50 states, at 119.4% of the U.S. average ($65,423). That ratio stood at 117.7% in 2000, so New York has become wealthier over the past 20 years compared to the nation as a whole, though 2022 did lose a little ground.
New York State was hit harder than most states by the pandemic. New York State suffered a 20.2% decline in non-farm payrolls between February 2020 and April 2020, as opposed to the national decline of 14.4%. Through April 2023, New York State has regained approximately 96% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic. Unemployment for the state stood at 4.0% in April 2023, above the national average of 3.4% for the same period, and tied for seventh worst in the nation.
The state’s economy is deep and diverse, though financial services exert an outsized influence. The upstate economy is more dependent on manufacturing and had been sluggish even before the pandemic. The downstate economy, anchored by financial, professional and business services, has been the state’s growth engine. New York State’s $2.1 trillion economy represents 8.1% of U.S. GDP. On a stand-alone basis, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), New York State’s economy would be the tenth largest in the world.
Wall Street activity has traditionally generated a disproportionate share of total state tax revenues because of its high levels of compensation, profitability and capital gains. While Wall Street represents about 4% of the state’s job total, it can account for 15-20% of total tax revenues realized by the state. Despite the pandemic, Wall Street had banner years in 2020 and 2021, with the stock market setting record highs and low interest rates triggering a wave of debt re-financings.
However, in 2022, Wall Street’s pretax profits fell approximately 56% from the prior year due to steep declines in investment banking fee revenues driven mostly by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and inflation. As result, Wall Street’s bonus pool erased prior year gains and returned to pre-pandemic levels.
New York State’s two largest sources of local revenue are the personal income tax (PIT) and the sales tax. Of the state’s general fund receipts, 21.2% came from the PIT in FY22, a notable drop from 39.0% the year before. The state’s somewhat steep income tax structure further concentrates the PIT on the highest earners, making it sensitive to swings in asset prices and capital gains tax receipts as seen throughout 2022. In 2019, the latest year available, the top 6% of New York State income tax filers accounted for 64% of the state’s PIT revenues.
New York State’s population dropped 2.6% between April 2020 and July 2022, marking the largest numeric and percentage population decline among the 50 states. However, the population loss from 2021 to 2022 (-0.9%) was roughly 47% less than from 2020 to 2021 (-1.7%), indicating that outmigration from the Empire State has slowed since the onset of the pandemic. In both years, the overwhelming majority of the decline can be attributed to city dwellers fleeing New York City, where population declined an estimated 5.3% over the same period.
The pandemic may explain a good part of this, especially in New York City. However, other factors could be in play. The Tax Foundation calculates that New York State has the highest state and local tax burden in the country. U.S. Internal Revenue Service data show that low-tax Florida is the second most popular destination for out-migrating New Yorkers (trailing only New Jersey). Are these relocations retirees seeking warmer climes or high earners looking for lower tax jurisdictions? Maybe a little of both? Hard to tell. But in any event, this does bear watching.
New York State has performed well financially in the years following the pandemic, bolstering statutory reserves to cushion against an economic downturn. It has a wide array of tools at its disposal to adapt and to maintain financial stability, and again has demonstrated a willingness and ability to use them.
The downstate economy, anchored by financial, professional and business services, has been the state’s growth engine.
State of New York Fiscal Year 2022 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report; New York State Annual Information Statement; New York State Constitution ; New York State Comptroller Reports ; New York State Division of the Budget; New York State Teachers’ Retirement System Fiscal Year 2022 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report; New York State and Local Retirement System Fiscal Year 2022 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report; Moody’s Investors Service ; Standard & Poor’s ; Fitch Ratings ; The Bond Buyer ; Moody’s 2021 State Debt Medians Report ; International Monetary Fund data base; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Tax Foundation; U.S. Internal Revenue Service.
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Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Bond insurance guarantees only the payment of principal and interest on the bond when due, and not the value of the bonds themselves, which will fluctuate with the bond market and the financial success of the issuer and the insurer. No representation is made as to an insurer’s ability to meet their commitments.
This information should not replace an investor’s consultation with a financial professional regarding their tax situation. Nuveen is not a tax advisor. Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
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