The Nuveen Bear Tracker

The Nuveen Bear Tracker is a guide that informs our discussions and debate around the unique dynamics of the current U.S. equity bear market, how it compares to those past, and when we might be close to a bottoming process. While not an exhaustive list, the six variables in our table have frequently shown turning points near the bottom of past bear markets. The colors are assigned based on our view of whether each variable is signaling we are close to a bottom (green), further away (red) or a mixed picture (yellow).

Each variable, however, does not carry equal significance. We believe the humbling task of calling the market bottom is just as much art as (we like to believe) science – thus a more qualitative approach is warranted.

July to August update

1. Manufacturing Activity went from “Further Away” to “Picture Is Mixed” 
2. Market Breadth went from “Close to a Bottom” to “Picture is Mixed”

Since our last update, there have been a number of economic data releases – leading to increased equity volatility and tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Our latest update reflects the positive move in the ISM New Orders Index back to > 50.

However, market breadth has been downgraded since July as the bear market rally faded across the summer.

Also notable, but not as clear on the Tracker is that rates are higher by ~50 bps on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, with most of that move being driven by real interest rates (more hawkishness being priced in since Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech). This has impacted the valuation sensitive stocks (big tech) the most.

As of the end of August market close, we’re about -18.5% below the Jan 4th all-time-high on the S&P 500.