30 Sep 2022
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Municipal Bonds
Chart talk: Opportunities in municipal bonds and global fixed income
The what, why and how of the municipal and global fixed income markets
Key 2022 themes
Municipal bond market
Economic environment
- Inflation remains hard to predict and has likely peaked, but may still be above the Fed’s target.Further uncertainty has been posed by geopolitical events.
- Fed funds rate has risen by 300 bps in 2022, with more rate hikes expected. Fed’s policy shift is fully discounted by markets.
- U.S. growth is softening due to higher interest rates and fiscal tightening.
- Rates remain volatile, and the path of rates depends on inflation.
Municipal market environment
- Long-term municipal valuations are attractive compared to similar U.S. Treasuries.
- Credit remains strong, with historic levels of revenue collections and rainy day funds. Attractive spreads plus sound credit conditions offer an appealing entry point for high yield municipals. Defaults remain rare and idiosyncratic.
- Supply is lower than last year due to less taxable municipal issuance from refunding. Fund outflows continue to pressure municipal performance.
The evolving fixed income market environment Key 2022 themes
Economic environment
- U.S. growth outlook positive, but decelerating
- Global growth more sharply slowing
- Central banks aggressively tightening
- Fiscal policy support diminishing
Portfolio positioning
- Much higher yields make fixed income more attractive
- Credit spreads may widen further, providing an opportunity to increase risk exposure
- Over the medium term, expect strong credit fundamentals to limit damage
- Diversified overweight to spread sectors with an up-in-quality bias
- Advocate deep research, favoring idiosyncratic stories with positive long-term growth prospects
Finding opportunities in fixed income markets can be challenging. Unless you know where to look. Download our key municipal and global fixed income charts to learn more.
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Endnotes
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
A word on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, derivatives risk, dollar roll transaction risk and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Below investment grade or high yield debt securities are subject to liquidity risk and heightened credit risk. Preferred securities are subordinated to bonds and other debt instruments in a company’s capital structure and therefore are subject to greater credit risk. Foreign investments involve additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. Asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities are subject to additional risks such as prepayment risk, liquidity risk, default risk and adverse economic developments. The value of convertible securities may decline in response to such factors as rising interest rates and fluctuations in the market price of the underlying securities. Senior loans are subject to loan settlement risk due to the lack of established settlement standards or remedies for failure to settle. These investments are subject to credit risk and potentially limited liquidity, as well as interest rate risk, currency risk, prepayment and extension risk, and inflation risk.
Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Nuveen Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an investment specialist of Nuveen, LLC.
Nuveen provides investment advisory solutions through its investment specialists.
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