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Municipal Bonds

Muni Minute:

Muni market heats up as investors dive back in

Dan Close
Head of Municipals
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Key takeaways

Market recap

While a New Year's polar plunge is tradition for some, municipal investors are diving into warmer waters as reinvestment demand heats up the market. The AAA muni curve steepened as 2- and 10-year yields fell 10 and 14 bps, respectively. Ratios are more expensive as municipals outperformed U.S. Treasuries last week. High yield munis slightly outperformed investment grade, and spreads on bellwether names tightened. The House voted to extend healthcare subsidies, but the bill faces an uphill battle. Policy headlines can cause volatility, and we believe credit selection is key. Municipals show positive indicators for 2026, including high starting yields, a strong technical environment and solid credit fundamentals.

 

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How is supply trending?

Last week's supply was expected to reach $6B. Total 2025 supply broke yet another record topping $565B. We expect $600B to hit the market in 2026.

Market impact: Elevated supply is likely to be met by strong demand, yet heavy weeks may create opportunity to find attractive yields.

What do yields look like?

The municipal yield curve steepened slightly. Muni yields outperformed Treasuries and pushed Muni/UST ratios lower.

Municipal market yield (%) Current (%) Change (bps) Ratio (%)
5-year 2.27 -13 61%
10-year 2.67 -11 64%
30-year 4.21 -4 87%
Source: MMD, Bloomberg, L.P.; data from 02 Jan 2026–08 Jan 2026.

What are flows doing?

Municipal funds gathered $1.5B of flows last week, which was the best week since September 2025.

OEFs +$654M
ETFs +$800M
Long-term OEFs +$437M
Long-term ETFs +$417M
Source: LSEG Lipper, data from 31 Dec 2025–07 Jan 2026.
Longer-maturity municipals have offered meaningfully higher tax-efficient yields.

Download the full report

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Endnotes

Sources

Performance: Bloomberg, L.P. Issuance: J.P. Morgan, 08 Jan 2026. Fund flows: Lipper.

Any reference to credit ratings refers to the highest rating given by one of the following national rating agencies: S&P, Moody’s or Fitch. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC, CC, C and D are below-investment grade ratings.

This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.

Representative indexes: muni bond 5-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 5 Year (4 – 6) Index; muni bond 10-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 10 Year (8 – 12) Index; muni bond 15-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 15 Year (12 – 17) Index; muni long bond: Bloomberg Municipal Long Bond (22+) Index; muni bond 3 – 15 year blend: Bloomberg Municipal 3 – 15 year blend (2 – 17) Index; muni AAA: Bloomberg Municipal AAA Index; muni AA: Bloomberg Municipal AA Index; muni A: Bloomberg Municipal A Index; muni BBB: Bloomberg Municipal BBB Index; municipal bond: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index; muni high yield: Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index; U.S. aggregate bond: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; U.S. Treasury: Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. government related: Bloomberg U.S. Government-Related Index; U.S. corporate investment grade: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield corporate: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index.

This material, along with any views and opinions expressed within, are presented for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as changing market, economic, political, or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. There is no promise, representation, or warranty (express or implied) as to the past, future, or current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such. This material should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.

This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of yields and/or market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. No representation is made that the performance presented will be achieved, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward-looking information or the historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on any of the data and/or information presented herein by way of example. 

For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Important information on risk

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. There is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.

Investing in fixed income investments involves risks such as market risk, credit risk, interest rate/duration risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, derivatives risk, and income risk. Credit risk refers to an issuers ability to make interest and principal payments when due. Typically, the value of, and income generated by, fixed income investments will decrease, or increase based on changes in market interest rates. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall and as interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Income is only one component of performance and investors should consider all of the risk factors for an asset class before investing.

Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as market risk, credit risk, interest rate/duration risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, derivatives risk, and income risk. Credit risk refers to an ability to make interest and principal payments when due. Typically, the value of, and income generated by, muni bonds will decrease, or increase based on changes in market interest rates. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall and as interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Income is only one component of performance and investors should consider all of the risk factors for an asset class before investing. Income is generally exempt from regular federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes, based on the investor’s state of residence, as well as to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Capital gains, if any, are subject to tax. Income from municipal bonds could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. Please contact a tax professional regarding the suitability of tax-exempt investments as this information should not replace a client’s consultation with a financial/tax professional regarding their tax situation. Nuveen and its investment specialists do not provide tax advice.

Taxable-equivalent yields are based on the highest individual marginal federal tax rate of 37%, plus the 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income. Individual tax rates may vary.

Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.

This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.

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