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Key takeaways
- Municipal bond funds gathered another $2.1B in flows, bringing the monthly total to over $6.4B—the fastest start to the year since 2021.
- State and local tax revenue through the third quarter grew 4.7% year-over-year. Revenue growth has outperformed budget projections, driven by personal income tax—a positive for resiliency.
- The Fed held rates steady as expected. Market expectations for two 2026 rate cuts rose slightly on the new Fed Chair nomination.
Market recap
Municipal bonds rebounded last week and returned 0.25% through Thursday's close. January month-to-date returns of 0.90% handily outpaced Treasuries. Strong flows supported the market. Notably, high yield funds saw a strong uptick, gathering $486M—the best week since September 2025. We think demand momentum is building as a broader base of high yield sectors are attracting attention, and yields are historically attractive. Municipal state credit resiliency remains strong as solid tax revenue growth has broadly outpaced individual state projections. Fiscal 2026 projections for growth are mostly flat as states take a conservative approach to planning for federal policy and funding uncertainties.
How is supply trending?
Last week's supply was a modest $3.8B as issuers awaited the FOMC meeting. Next week's calendar is projected at $7.2B.
Market impact: A moderate supply calendar was easily absorbed by strong demand. Most deals were heavily oversubscribed. We expect supply to begin to rise in the coming weeks, which may provide more attractive entry points.
What do yields look like?
The yield curve steepened slightly as front-end rates fell more. Longer-dated municipals ended the week at more attractive valuations for investors willing to extend duration.
| Municipal market yield (%) | Current (%) | Change (bps) | Ratio (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year | 2.25 | -3 | 59% |
| 10-year | 2.64 | -2 | 62% |
| 30-year | 4.29 | 0 | 88% |
| Source: MMD, Bloomberg, L.P., data from 23 Jan 2026–29 Jan 2026. | |||
What are flows doing?
The hot streak for municipal fund flows continued with $2.1B gathered last week. Flows have favored intermediate-to-longer maturity mandates.
| OEFs | +$693M | ||
| ETFs | +$1.4B | ||
| Long-term OEFs | +$1.5B | ||
| Long-term ETFs | +$351M | ||
| Source: LSEG Lipper, data from 22 Jan 2026–28 Jan 2026. | |||
Longer-maturity municipals have offered meaningfully higher tax-efficient yields.
Related articles
The Nuveen munis in your community scorecard presents a broad range of data-driven insights.
In-depth fundamental research can help an investor understand risks, identify opportunities and capitalize on the inefficiencies in this asset class.
From shifting interest rate dynamics and credit fundamentals to emerging sector trends and tax considerations, this forward-looking discussion provides strategic insights for navigating the road ahead in 2026.
Endnotes
Sources
Performance: Bloomberg, L.P. Issuance: J.P. Morgan, 28 Jan 2026. Fund flows: Lipper.
Any reference to credit ratings refers to the highest rating given by one of the following national rating agencies: S&P, Moody’s or Fitch. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC, CC, C and D are below-investment grade ratings.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors.
Representative indexes: muni bond 5-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 5 Year (4–6) Index; muni bond 10-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 10 Year (8–12) Index; muni bond 15-year: Bloomberg Municipal Bond 15 Year (12–17) Index; muni long bond: Bloomberg Municipal Long Bond (22+) Index; muni bond 3–15 year blend: Bloomberg Municipal 3–15 year blend (2–17) Index; muni AAA: Bloomberg Municipal AAA Index; muni AA: Bloomberg Municipal AA Index; muni A: Bloomberg Municipal A Index; muni BBB: Bloomberg Municipal BBB Index; municipal bond: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index; muni high yield: Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index; U.S. aggregate bond: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; U.S. Treasury: Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. government related: Bloomberg U.S. Government-Related Index; U.S. corporate investment grade: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield corporate: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index.
This material, along with any views and opinions expressed within, are presented for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as changing market, economic, political, or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. There is no promise, representation, or warranty (express or implied) as to the past, future, or current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such. This material should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of yields and/or market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. No representation is made that the performance presented will be achieved, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward-looking information or the historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on any of the data and/or information presented herein by way of example.
For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Important information on risk
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. There is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.
Investing in fixed income investments and municipal bonds involves risks such as market risk, credit risk, interest rate/duration risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, derivatives risk, and income risk. Credit risk refers to an issuers ability to make interest and principal payments when due. Typically, the value of, and income generated by, fixed income investments will decrease,or increase based on changes in market interest rates. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall and as interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Income is only one component of performance and investors should consider all of the risk factors for an asset class before investing.
Income from municipal bonds is generally exempt from regular federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes, based on the investor’s state of residence, as well as to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Capital gains, if any, are subject to tax. Income from municipal bonds could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. Please contact a tax professional regarding the suitability of tax-exempt investments as this information should not replace a client’s consultation with a financial/tax professional regarding their tax situation. Nuveen and its investment specialists do not provide tax advice.
Taxable-equivalent yields are based on the highest individual marginal federal tax rate of 37%, plus the 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income. Individual tax rates may vary.
Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.
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