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Investment Outlook
Macro market monitor
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Looking at the big picture
The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.
Inflation: Inflation expectations have continued to improve, finally pushing long term inflation expectations into the green category.
U.S. monetary policy: U.S. monetary policy remains relatively unchanged, with the fed funds rate and financial conditions staying consistent with the previous reading.
Economic activity: Economic activity remains mixed with all categories worsening. However, consumer expectations saw the biggest jump from the 66th percentile down to the 94th with the impact of tariff expectations weighing on sentiment.
Employment: Employment remains robust, however; jobless claims have climbed, a trend we will monitor, while job openings remain generally unchanged.
Investor sentiment: Investor sentiment shows improvement, with broad investor sentiment slightly declining, but individual investor survey drastically jumping to the 2nd percentile.
U.S. equity fundamentals: U.S. equity fundamentals remain mixed. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio was largely unchanged from February, and expected earnings growth remained unchanged. However, expected earnings revisions dropped.
Nuveen Macro Market Monitor informs our discussions
| Positive | Neutral | Negative |
| Category | Gauge | Percentile Rank (vs Past 20 Years, Higher Rank = Potential Headwind to Markets) | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation |
Long-term inflation expectations | 30 | 2.20 |
| U.S. Monetary Policy |
Fed funds rate | 82 | 4.50 |
| Financial conditions | 34 | 99.3 | |
| Economic Activity |
Consumer expectations | 94 | 54.2 |
| Household debt service ratio | 23 | 11.3 | |
| Housing starts | 27 | 1501 | |
| Economic surprises | 62 | -6.9 | |
| Employment |
Jobless claims | 18 | 223 |
| Job openings | 18 | 7.7 | |
| Investor Sentiment | Broad investor sentiment | 14 | 2 |
| Individual investor survey | 2 | -36.5 | |
| U.S. Equity Fundamentals |
S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio | 87 | 20.5 |
| S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth |
40 | 12.7 | |
| Revisions to expected earnings | 52 | 2.3 | |
|
Data source: Bloomberg, L.P., 19 March 2025. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. The views above are for informational purposes only and do not reflect the experience or performance of any Nuveen product, strategy or service. The color scale is based on each metric’s percentile rank as compared to its 20-year average. A lower percentile ranking indicates a positive or less of a concern to its impact on the economy while a higher percentile ranking indicates a negative or more of a concern to its impact on the economy. Green: 1st-33rd percentile; Yellow: 34th-67th percentile; Red: 68th-100th percentile. Representative indexes: long-term inflation expectations: U.S. 5yr 5yr forward breakeven; fed funds rate: federal funds target rate - upper bound; financial conditions: GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index; consumer expectations: U of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index; household debt service ratio: household debt payment as % of disposable income; housing starts: U.S. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started by Structure Total SAAR; economic surprises: Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index; jobless claims: U.S. initial jobless claims; job openings: U.S. job openings by industry total; broad investor sentiment: Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator Signal; individual investor survey: AII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bullish Minus Bearish Readings; S&P 500 forward price to earnings ratio: S&P 500 Forward FY1 P/E; S&P 500 forward expected earnings growth: S&P 500 FY1 EPS Growth; revisions to expected earnings: S&P 500 3-Month Change in FY1 EPS. |
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