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Election outlook

Seize the moment: 2024 election insights

Download election outlook

How policy impacts portfolio construction

While politics and candidates are front and center leading up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, investors should be considering the policy and planning shifts following the election cycle. Unlike other global events of this scale that yield more immediate outcomes, the economic effects of a presidential election tend to play out over a longer period of time, which is why we believe that it's important to stay invested and focus on the long-term picture.

Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee discusses key areas to watch, presents policy scenarios for different outcomes, and shares our views about attractive opportunities across asset classes heading into (and out of) election season. Read our election outlook

Portfolio considerations for the 2024 election cycle

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Volatility
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Volatility
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Portfolio consideration: volatility

While election results typically have little impact on markets, election years do tend to be more volatile. Investors this year may be particularly concerned about election chaos in the midst of a highly valued and concentrated equity market. In this environment, risk management and portfolio discipline remain crucial. Read more about how diversification can help manage risks.

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Recession potential
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Recession potential
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Portfolio consideration: recession potential

Recent declines in job creation and an uptick in the unemployment rate have led to heightened recession concerns. While a soft landing is still very much in the cards, investors should prepare portfolios to be resilient across both scenarios. A recession would likely lead to a decline in interest rates and benefit fixed income sectors. We suggest exploring strategies that may lock in still-attractive fixed income yields while balancing credit and interest rate risk. 

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Chart: A recession could lead to lower yields and may benefit fixed income assets
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Fed rate cuts
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Fed rate cuts
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Portfolio consideration: Fed rate cuts

As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, investors anticipating a significant duration tailwind may be disappointed. Instead, we suggest that investors consider seeking return through income, taking advantage of attractive yields in a portfolio diversified across asset classes. Read about how Fed rate cuts might affect an investment portfolio.

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Rising taxes
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Rising taxes
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Portfolio consideration: rising taxes

We’re seeing a greater emphasis on tax policy this election cycle because of an expiring debt ceiling agreement and a large slate of tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that are set to expire at the end of 2025. Now is a good time to create a multiyear tax strategy that will allow you to benefit as much as possible from the TCJA while preparing for it to expire.

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 Chart: Tax equivalent income becomes more attractive as rates go up
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This material, along with any views and opinions expressed within, are presented for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as changing market, economic or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. There is no representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such.

This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of yields and/or market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Moreover, certain historical performance information of other investment vehicles or composite accounts managed by Nuveen may be included in this material and such performance information is presented by way of example only. No representation is made that the performance presented will be achieved, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward‑looking information or the historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Economic and market forecasts are subject to uncertainty and may change based on varying market conditions, political and economic developments. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on any of the data and/or information presented herein by way of example. 

Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

For all index definitions shown in this material please click on the glossary link at the bottom of this page. 

Important information on risk

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. There is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. See the applicable product literature for details. 

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