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Key takeaways
- U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled, pushing oil prices higher for the week and keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated across markets.
- Economic data remained broadly healthy, with jobless claims holding low and retail sales beating March expectations.
- Treasury yields rose ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, as expectations for near-term rate cuts faded slightly.
Market recap
Middle East tensions continued to drive markets last week, with WTI crude oil ending the week up 13% at $94 per barrel. Despite President Trump announcing a ceasefire extension, negotiations produced no substantive progress. Economic data were broadly constructive, with jobless claims remaining low and retail sales beating expectations in March. Against that backdrop, Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 10-year ending up 5 basis points (bps) to 4.30%. Markets now price roughly a 45% chance of a single U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end, down slightly from the prior week.
Fixed income returns were mixed. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index returned -0.26%, while investment grade corporates retreated but outperformed similar-duration Treasuries by 1 basis point. Preferreds were flat, tax-exempt munis edged up 0.03%, and senior loans advanced 0.26%.
Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Wednesday, and we expect no change to interest rate policy. With no updated economic projections or dot plot scheduled, attention will focus on Chair Powell’s press conference. Given that the Department of Justice has dropped its investigation of the Federal Reserve, this may be Powell’s final meeting as Chair — a dynamic that makes any firm near-term policy signals unlikely. We expect him to reiterate that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation and labor market data.
We have modestly revised our 2026 macroeconomic forecasts, now projecting real U.S. GDP growth of 1.8% and core inflation of 2.8%. We expect the Fed to remain on hold through the summer before cutting once later in the year. Our forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield remains 4.00% to 4.25%, with a year-end bias toward the lower end of that range.
U.S. Treasury market yields
| Maturity | Yield | Week | Month-to-date | Year-to-date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 3.78 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.31 |
| 5-year | 3.92 | 0.07 | -0.03 | 0.19 |
| 10-year | 4.30 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.13 |
| 30-year | 4.91 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Source: Bloomberg L.P., 24 Apr 2026. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. | ||||
Rising oil prices and resilient economic data pushed Treasury yields higher, producing mixed fixed income returns with senior loans leading the way.
Fixed income characteristics and returns
| Index | Yield to worst (%) | Spread (bps) | Effective duration (years) | Returns (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Month-to-date | Year-to-date | ||||
| Municipal | 3.60 | - | 6.66 | 0.03 | 1.50 | 1.32 |
| High yield municipal | 5.52 | 163¹ | 7.33 | 0.08 | 1.62 | 2.35 |
| Taxable municipal | 4.93 | 54² | 7.56 | -0.26 | 0.38 | 0.81 |
| U.S. aggregate bond | 4.51 | 26² | 5.87 | -0.26 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| U.S. Treasury | 4.11 | - | 5.83 | -0.23 | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| U.S. government related | 4.49 | 37² | 5.31 | -0.25 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| U.S. corporate investment grade | 5.03 | 79² | 6.83 | -0.27 | 1.05 | 0.51 |
| U.S. mortgage-backed securities | 4.77 | 20² | 5.29 | -0.33 | 0.61 | 1.02 |
| U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities | 4.61 | 68² | 3.78 | -0.18 | 0.50 | 0.82 |
| U.S. asset-backed securities | 4.37 | 51² | 2.81 | -0.07 | 0.43 | 0.75 |
| Preferred securities | 6.14 | 159² | 5.55 | 0.00 | 2.21 | 1.56 |
| High yield 2% issuer capped | 6.90 | 272² | 2.92 | -0.19 | 1.78 | 1.28 |
| Senior loans³ | 8.45 | 489 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 1.12 | 0.64 |
| Collateralized loan obligations, AA | 5.13 | 145² | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 1.54 |
| Collateralized loan obligations, BB | 11.78 | 790² | 0.25 | 0.53 | 2.46 | -0.77 |
| Global emerging markets | 5.96 | 175² | 5.96 | -0.27 | 2.40 | 1.02 |
| Global aggregate (unhedged) | 3.72 | 28² | 6.26 | -0.64 | 1.38 | 0.29 |
| 1 Yield difference between the Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index and the 20-year AAA MMD scale. 2 Option-adjusted spread to Treasuries. 3 Spread refers to the 3-year discount margin. Duration is estimated based on the frequency of the reset date. Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Standard & Poor’s, 24 Apr 2026. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Unless otherwise noted, the index is Bloomberg. All index returns are shown in U.S. dollars. Yield to worst is the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting. Effective duration (expressed in years) measures the price sensitivity of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates, considering that expected cash flows will fluctuate as interest rates change. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. Index returns include reinvestment of income and do not reflect investment advisory and other fees that would reduce performance in an actual client account. |
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Representative indexes: municipal: Bloomberg Municipal Index; high yield municipal: Bloomberg High Yield Municipal Index; taxable municipal: Bloomberg Taxable Municipal Bond Index; U.S. aggregate bond: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; U.S. Treasury: Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. government related: Bloomberg U.S. Government-Related Index; U.S. corporate investment grade: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. mortgage-backed securities; Bloomberg U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Index; U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities: Bloomberg CMBS ERISA-Eligible Index; U.S. asset-backed securities: Bloomberg Asset-Backed Securities Index; preferred securities: ICE BofA U.S. All Capital Securities Index; high yield 2% issuer capped: Bloomberg High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; senior loans: S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index; CLO AA: J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation AA Index; CLO BB: J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation BB Index; global emerging markets: Bloomberg Emerging Market USD Aggregate Index; global aggregate: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Unhedged Index.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her financial professionals.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, derivatives risk, dollar roll transaction risk and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Below investment grade or high yield debt securities are subject to liquidity risk and heightened credit risk. Preferred securities are subordinated to bonds and other debt instruments in a company’s capital structure and therefore are subject to greater credit risk. Foreign investments involve additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities are subject to additional risks such as prepayment risk, liquidity risk, default risk and adverse economic developments. The value of convertible securities may decline in response to such factors as rising interest rates and fluctuations in the market price of the underlying securities. Senior loans are subject to loan settlement risk due to the lack of established settlement standards or remedies for failure to settle. These investments are subject to credit risk and potentially limited liquidity, as well as interest rate risk, currency risk, prepayment and extension risk, and inflation risk. Any investment in collateralized loan obligations or other structured vehicles involves significant risks not associated with more conventional investment alternatives.
Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her financial professionals.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Important information on risk
Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, derivatives risk, dollar roll transaction risk and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Below investment grade or high yield debt securities are subject to liquidity risk and heightened credit risk. Preferred securities are subordinated to bonds and other debt instruments in a company’s capital structure and therefore are subject to greater credit risk. Foreign investments involve additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities are subject to additional risks such as prepayment risk, liquidity risk, default risk and adverse economic developments. The value of convertible securities may decline in response to such factors as rising interest rates and fluctuations in the market price of the underlying securities. Senior loans are subject to loan settlement risk due to the lack of established settlement standards or remedies for failure to settle. These investments are subject to credit risk and potentially limited liquidity, as well as interest rate risk, currency risk, prepayment and extension risk, and inflation risk. Any investment in collateralized loan obligations or other structured vehicles involves significant risks not associated with more conventional investment alternatives.
Investors should contact a tax professional regarding the appropriateness of tax-exempt investments in their portfolio. If sold prior to maturity, municipal securities are subject to gain/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions and the credit quality of the issuer. Income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and/or state and local taxes, based on the state of residence. Income from municipal bonds held by a portfolio could be declared taxable because of unfavorable changes in tax laws, adverse interpretations by the Internal Revenue Service or state tax authorities, or noncompliant conduct of a bond issuer. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.
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