An active approach to diversified tax-exempt income
Nuveen's forward-thinking approach to portfolio construction leverages 125 years as a leader in the municipal bond industry to help achieve outcomes that align with investors’ tax-exempt income objectives while seeking to minimize downside risk.
Highlights
- In June, the Fed left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. In its projections, the Fed no longer projects a rate cut in 2026.
- In Q2 2026, municipal-to-Treasury ratios declined across the curve. The 5-, 10- and 30-year ratios declined by 6%, 7% and 8%. Ratios ended the quarter at 60%, 65% and 83%, respectively. High yield municipal spreads widened by twenty basis points during the quarter. High yield credit fundamentals remain attractive.
- Year-to-date, municipal bonds have seen $53 billion in net flows, this is the second highest year-to-date flow total for this point in the year since Lipper began reporting flows in 1992, trailing only 2021. $45 billion has gone into investment grade while $8 billion has been allocated to high yield.
- Our forecast now predicts a higher-rate, steeper-curve environment going forward, with sustained upward pressure on long-term yields. This shift is driven primarily by our revised short-term rate 5Y assumption. As the model incorporated a higher expected policy path, it flowed through to higher projected yields across the curve, with the long end reflecting both the elevated rate path and the associated term premium. Based on these market dynamics, the changes we made are slightly more defensive against potentially higher long-term rates, with a focus on reducing duration in the models. We made the following adjustments across our models: In the Moderate model, reduced Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond and reallocated to Nuveen Intermediate Duration Municipal Bond and Nuveen Limited Term Municipal Bond. In the High-Income model, we trimmed Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond and increased Nuveen Intermediate Duration Municipal Bond and Nuveen Short Duration High Yield Municipal Bond.