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Real Estate

Real estate: recovery in progress

Carly Tripp
Global Chief Investment Officer and Head of Nuveen Real Estate Investments
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Q&A with Carly Tripp

With macroeconomic trends continuing to impact real estate, Carly Tripp, Global Chief Investment Officer of Nuveen Real Estate, sheds light on the recovery process and how real estate is performing across regions.

The real estate market is picking up, but where exactly are we in the recovery period?

We’re reaching the latter stages of the recovery period overall; however, we continue to see a divergence in performance among sectors and countries globally. Fundamentals have remained resilient and strong within housing, industrial and alternative sectors and, in many cases, net operating income growth has outpaced inflation.

On the other hand, capital market constraints and the rate cycle have resulted in overall value depreciation across regions, and we’re starting to see the resulting value pressures moderate quarter-by-quarter. And looking further to individual sector performance across regions that variance becomes more pronounced. Not all real estate is made the same.

Office has contributed most significantly to negative returns in the U.S., while retail has surprisingly been the best performer over the last 12 months. In Europe the biggest correction has been in residential and logistics, where cap rates were the lowest.

Many investors are standing on the sidelines concerned about contagion in the office sector. However, while office is distressed in the U.S. we’re seeing a completely different picture elsewhere, especially in Asia-Pacific. The office sector has not only been resilient, it has thrived in places like Singapore, where we’re seeing hotels being converted to office space to keep up with demand, which is driving strong rent growth.

Despite the recovery, recession concerns still loom across many global markets. Is this justified?

The trajectory of inflation and ongoing rate hikes is at different stages across the globe and the risk of a global recessionary environment akin to the financial crisis is waning. In the U.S., the probability of a soft landing is increasing and our internal house view is that a risk of mild recession will remain for several quarters, though the timing keeps being pushed out.

If we can resolve core inflation while maintaining strong labor markets and consumer balance sheets, much of the pain will be behind us. Based on the operational performance of the 70,000 rental units we manage, we believe that core inflation is resolving and shelter costs in the U.S. will normalize early next year. Signs are emerging that the European Central Bank’s interest rates have peaked in autumn 2023 with nominal rental growth predicted to be higher than market fundamentals suggest, at least into 2024.

More Q&A with Carly Tripp

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Endnotes

The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

A word on risk

Real estate investments are subject to various risks associated with ownership of real estate-related assets, including fluctuations in property values, higher expenses or lower income than expected, potential environmental problems and liability, and risks related to leasing of properties. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the potential use of leverage, potential short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits.

Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.

This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.

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