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Investment outlook

Macro market monitor

Saira Malik
Chief Investment Officer
Macro market monitor gauge

Looking at the big picture

The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy. 

Inflation: Trailing inflation remains elevated and has seesawed after a significant decline over the past two years. However, forward looking inflation expectations expect the disinflation process to continue.

U.S. monetary policy: Increasingly restrictive given the level of the Fed Funds Rate and financial conditions tightening due to higher interest rates. Expectations for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve have been pushed out into later 2024. As such we have shifted the category from yellow to red.

Economic activity: Economic surprises and the household debt service ratio both deteriorated since our last update. As such we have moved this category from green to yellow.

Employment: Healthy, with jobless claims near historic lows and job openings well above its long-term average. Some cracks may have started to appear in employment data, but only marginally so.

Investor sentiment: Mixed, with individual investors reflecting more optimism than the overall investor community. 

U.S. equity fundamentals: Revisions to expected earnings have improved, therefore, we have shifted this category from red to yellow.

Macro market tracker table
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