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Investment outlook
2023 2Q GIC outlook: Caught in a holding pattern
Views from the Global Investment Committee
- Caught in a holding pattern
- Portfolio construction themes and our highest-conviction views
- The economy and markets
- Our best investment ideas
Key takeaways
- Investors are unnerved by a combination of banking sector turmoil, inflation pressures and an uncertain interest rate environment.
- Until more clarity emerges, we expect investors will be in for a bumpy ride.
- Our investment themes focus on preparing for an economic slowdown, capitalizing on shifting market values and balancing risks across public and private markets.
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Caught in a holding pattern
Saira Malik, Chief Investment Officer
Our 2023 year-ahead outlook forecasted terrain that would be difficult to cross: persistent inflation pressures, moderating interest rate hikes, slowing economic growth and a likely recession. We titled that outlook Peaks and valleys: Navigating the rocky market landscape, acknowledging the easing of some risks and the rise of others.
In the early weeks of 2023, a disinflationary trend took hold, fueling a market rally and optimism for an impending pause in rate hikes. Volatility surged in March, however, following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and perceived instability of the U.S. banking system. Should that instability continue, it could complicate the Fed’s ability to promote financial stability and measured inflation, adding yet another element of uncertainty to the outlook. Regardless, we seem to be already in that “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment, which is likely to trigger slower growth, make life more difficult for consumers and cause tighter liquidity conditions, all of which have portfolio construction implications.
Given the complicated economic and market backdrop, investors are facing a difficult journey. Unfortunately, we don’t expect a smooth ride given that several risks still loom large. While the interest rate outlook remains uncertain, the post-GFC world of ultra-low rates is clearly behind us. Inflation remains elevated. And we expect the global economy will slow. In other words, investors are caught in a holding pattern until we get more clarity around the direction of rates, inflation and growth.
So what should investors do during this holding pattern? We unraveled that conundrum in our most recent Global Investment Committee sessions. And our conclusions lead us to offer the following three portfolio construction themes:
Prepare for landing. We anticipate a mild recession, which leads us to argue for primarily defensive positioning. Visibility remains low, and the GIC suggests preparing for a bumpy ride beyond 2023 as the Fed remains in “wait and see” mode. Ultimately, the landing will be determined by when inflation is finally anchored and how quickly the associated downside risks are mitigated.
Don’t put your portfolio on autopilot. Some areas might make sense to pare back (such as investment grade taxable fixed income) and other areas may warrant leaning in (like emerging markets equities). In other words, a holding pattern doesn’t mean investors can take their hands off the proverbial controls. Markets have moved noticeably over the last several months, causing relative values to shift within and between different asset classes.
Balance the public/private predicament. This important theme from 2022 remains in focus, as many expect and fear that the public markets selloff from last year will work its way into private markets. We see some technical pressures in areas of private real estate, for example. But we also see areas of the private investment space that remain attractive, such as private credit.
Our updated asset class heat map and our asset class “best ideas” outlooks show how these themes specifically play out and outline the advice we’re offering to our clients. Overall, though, while we await clearance to land, we expect more turbulence and volatility. And at the risk of stretching this metaphor past its breaking point, we suggest buckling your seatbelts and expecting a bumpy ride.
As Nuveen’s CIO and leader of our Global Investment Committee, Saira drives market and investment insights, delivers client asset allocation views and brings together the firm’s most senior investment leaders to deliver our best thinking and actionable investment ideas. In addition, she chairs Nuveen’s Equities Investment Council and is a portfolio manager for several key investment strategies.
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Endnotes
Sources
All market and economic data from Bloomberg, FactSet and Morningstar.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature.
Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investing involves risk. Investments are also subject to political, currency and regulatory risks. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A, and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC/CC/C and D are below-investment grade ratings. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets and foreign investing, including changes in economic conditions, currency values, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties. Socially Responsible Investments are subject to Social Criteria Risk, namely the risk that because social criteria exclude securities of certain issuers for non-financial reasons, investors may forgo some market opportunities available to those that don’t use these criteria. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the use of leverage, short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits. Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and should not constitute an entire investment program. Investors may lose all or substantially all of the capital invested. The historical returns achieved by alternative asset vehicles is not a prediction of future performance or a guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that comparable returns will be achieved by any strategy.
Nuveen provides investment advisory services through its investment specialists.
Sources
All market and economic data from Bloomberg, FactSet and Morningstar.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature.
Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investing involves risk. Investments are also subject to political, currency and regulatory risks. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A, and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC/CC/C and D are below-investment grade ratings. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets and foreign investing, including changes in economic conditions, currency values, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties. Socially Responsible Investments are subject to Social Criteria Risk, namely the risk that because social criteria exclude securities of certain issuers for non-financial reasons, investors may forgo some market opportunities available to those that don’t use these criteria. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the use of leverage, short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits. Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and should not constitute an entire investment program. Investors may lose all or substantially all of the capital invested. The historical returns achieved by alternative asset vehicles is not a prediction of future performance or a guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that comparable returns will be achieved by any strategy.
Nuveen provides investment advisory services through its investment specialists.
