How North American insurers are positioning for 2026: From building to optimizing

Economic outlooks and forecasts are abundant, providing data points around capital market expectations and broader sentiment. Used well, they can inform allocation decisions, identify relative value opportunities and help avoid crowded trades.

A single outlook is one data point. But from a survey of 238 insurers, themes emerge that can provide genuinely valuable insight. Now in its fourth year, the insurance edition of Nuveen's EQuilibrium survey is a powerful tool to frame your 2026 investment outlook.

In the 2026 survey, we see North American insurers recalibrating rather than repositioning. They are diversifying within private credit, allocating more capital outside of the U.S. and capturing emerging opportunities in the AI infrastructure buildout. Here are three themes defining North American insurance investing in 2026:

1. Private credit allocations are beginning to mature
   Private market investing has continued momentum, albeit at a slower pace. 46% of respondents plan to increase allocations, down from 69% last year. Most North American insurers see private credit as a core asset class. 57% of respondents see private asset allocations in a range of 11%-30% in the next five years. As allocations reach desired ranges, investors are focusing on optimizing through diversification and pursuing new alternative credit strategies selectively to capture illiquidity and complexity premiums.
2. Increased focus on international markets
   In addition to diversifying in private credit, North American insurers are diversifying geographically. While U.S. home bias remains strong, a growing share are making modest shifts, reducing U.S. exposure in response to trade disruption, deglobalization and growing uncertainty around U.S. capital market dominance. Among those making changes, 45% identify Europe ex-UK as their largest increase. This reflects pragmatic risk management—a measured response to a less predictable environment.
3. Infrastructure 2.0 is redefining the asset class
   The convergence of two powerful forces—artificial intelligence and energy transition—is expanding the definition of infrastructure and will require massive investment. 74% of North American insurers identify AI as the most influential long-term megatrend shaping their strategy, with today's opportunity set centering on cloud infrastructure, energy production and transmission, data centers and specialized financing structures that support decarbonization.
   
   While the language around decarbonization has shifted from an ESG risk factor to more descriptive terms like energy transition, rapid growth in AI-driven energy demand is increasing the need for all energy sources—and strengthening the opportunity set for clean energy investments. 68% of North American insurers agree that projections of rapid energy demand growth are reinforcing the case for clean energy.

Having recently retired as a Chief Investment Officer, this is the first year that I won't direct asset allocation and sign up for investment income goals. As an advisor to the process, I can help translate a large and complex body of information into actionable insights. The full 2026 EQuilibrium survey is linked below—I hope you find it as useful as I have.

I'd welcome the opportunity to discuss these themes and hear how they resonate with your own 2026 outlook.