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Alternative credit

2H 2024 Alternative credit insights: Investing for resiliency

Investing for resiliency hero image

Shifting signals on interest rates create opportunities

At the start of the year, the consensus was that rate cuts were the name of the game in 2024. To put it mildly, that has changed significantly. The more hawkish outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and most other central banks underlined the reality of a higher-for-longer rate environment. And while that has caused no small amount of consternation among investors, it has also shed a light on investment opportunities.

Our mid-year insights piece highlights asset classes which offer resilience in strained market conditions and explores how different alternative credit asset classes can provide this resilience for investors.

 
  

Click to view select alternative credit highlights.

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)
Strong growth in the first half of 2024
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)
Strong growth in the first half of 2024

Buoyed on by higher rates

The CLO market has seen strong growth in the first half of 2024, buoyed on higher rates. Another factor in the growth of the market is investors seeking to diversify alternative allocations. Private equity is yet to resume activity in full swing, and investors have sought to differentiate income through the CLO market’s front end cash distributions.

Average U.S. CLO coupons across the ratings stack

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Energy and infrastructure credit
A step change increase in electricity demand is ratcheting demand for capital
Energy and infrastructure credit
A step change increase in electricity demand is ratcheting demand for capital

Driven by tailwinds in decarbonization

EIC is successfully tapping into long-term drivers, setting the asset class up as a well-positioned allocation capable of weathering multiple market conditions. Significant need for power, driven by increasing computing and data processing and power-intense manufacturing, coupled with the push to decarbonize many industries means demand for infrastructure to meet these needs is set to increase substantially over the long term.

 
Significant electrification demand expected and large opportunity to decarboniz
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Investment grade private credit
Strong deal flow and sustained spread premiums generated across multiple sectors
Investment grade private credit
Strong deal flow and sustained spread premiums generated across multiple sectors

Increasing momentum toward private credit

Strong deal flow and attractive spread premiums have bolstered the investment grade private credit market, and this is being seen across sectors. The more highly structured segments of the market such as esoteric asset-backed securities, credit tenant loans and project finance continue to be attractive in adding diversification and enhance yield to investor portfolios.

 

Historical spread premiums over publics (bps)
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Featured insights

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This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on factors such as market conditions or legal and regulatory developments. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

A word on risk 

All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investing involves risk. Investments are also subject to political, currency and regulatory risks. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A, and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC/CC/C and D are below-investment grade ratings. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets and foreign investing, including changes in economic conditions, currency values, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the use of leverage, short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits. Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and should not constitute an entire investment program. Investors may lose all or substantially all of the capital invested. The historical returns achieved by alternative asset vehicles is not a prediction of future performance or a guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that comparable returns will be achieved by any strategy. Impact investing and/or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) managers may take into consideration factors beyond traditional financial information to select securities, which could result in relative investment performance deviating from other strategies or broad market benchmarks, depending on whether such sectors or investments are in or out of favor in the market. This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.

Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.

 
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