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2Q 2019 outlook

The Nuveen Solutions team assess risk-adjusted return potential across asset classes for the next 6 to 12 months.


Cross-asset views and portfolio construction from the Nuveen Solutions team

Nuveen Solutions draws upon the Nuveen Global Investment Committee’s investment outlook and asset class views to assess risk-adjusted return potential across asset classes for the next 6 to 12 months. These forward-looking views help drive positioning within diversified portfolios designed for common investor outcomes. Here, we present one of our model growth portfolios based on a 60/40 equity/ fixed income allocation.

Asset allocation highlights for moderate growth investors

 

  • U.S. Equities: Given the late stage of the cycle, we favor the defensive nature of U.S. large cap growth over the cyclicality of U.S. large cap value. We also have an unfavorable view toward U.S. small caps, as we anticipate heightened volatility and a declining U.S. dollar..
  • Non-U.S. Equities: We previously had a less favorable view toward non-U.S. developed markets, but have moved to a more neutral position since we believe prices already reflect negative fundamentals. We continue to have a positive bias on emerging market equities, which are attractively valued and may benefit from more accommodative global monetary policy, a declining U.S. dollar and Chinese stimulus measures.
  • Aggregate Fixed Income: While we don’t anticipate higher rates in the near term, we are less favorable on U.S. aggregate bonds given the flat U.S. Treasury yield curve.
  • Plus Sector Fixed Income: We are positive on emerging market debt, which historically provided attractive yields and may benefit from a more stable U.S. dollar. We see less value in both high yield corporates and leveraged loans.
  • Short-Term Fixed Income: We have a positive view toward short-term fixed income, given favorable income characteristics compared to other parts of the yield curve.


Additional portfolio construction views

  • Although not included in our growth models, we also have a favorable view toward intermediate and long municipal bonds, including high yield municipals, since they have attractive spreads and favorable supply/ demand characteristics. We see little value in non-U.S. developed fixed income markets.
  • We see value across real estate and private equity investments, with a particular emphasis on U.S. real estate mortgages and farmland investments.
  • We see value across real estate and private equity investments, with a particular emphasis on U.S. real estate mortgages and farmland investments.
  • For income-oriented objectives, we allocate to higher quality, investment grade credit and away from more speculative grade. For potentially higher portfolio yields, we favor emerging markets debt.

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Take a look back at our 2019 Global Investment Committee Outlook

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Model portfolios reflect Nuveen Solutions’ investment philosophy and outlook with respect to asset allocation and individual asset classes.

Nuveen Growth model portfolios (“models”) reflect exposures utilizing asset classes. These models are intended to illustrate how combinations of asset classes could be used to achieve the stated investment objectives. Results are inherently limited and do not represent actual results and may not account for the impact of the general market. The models do not consider the financial status, investment objectives, tax situation, or other needs of specific investors or client types. Providing the models does not reflect, establish or evidence an advisory or fiduciary relationship between Nuveen Solutions (NS) or a Nuveen affiliate, on the one hand, and the financial professional, his or her firm or clients, on the other. Models are not automatically rebalanced; allocations may not achieve model objectives and are not guaranteed. Model allocations may vary. Allocations are reviewed periodically and may change based on NS strategic and tactical views. There are no management or other fees at the model level; however fees apply for the underlying investment products. The models’ risks are directly related to those of the underlying asset classes, as described below. Allocations may not match a client’s actual experience from an account managed in accordance with the model portfolio allocation. Objective and goals may not be met.

NS and its affiliates do not assume responsibility for determining the suitability of an actual portfolio based on these models for any investor, or for making specific investment decisions in connection with implementing any investment program that might be based (in whole or in part) on these models for any such investor. These responsibilities will be borne solely by the financial professional, his or her firm and clients. In addition to providing the models, Nuveen or its affiliates may also manage internal and/or client accounts on a discretionary basis in a strategy similar to a model. Discretionary account management by a Nuveen affiliate may vary materially from the models. Nuveen does not provide tax or legal advice.

Nuveen Solutions comprises a team of investment professionals who are shared between Nuveen Asset Management, LLC (“NAM”) and Teachers Advisors, LLC (“TAL”), both Nuveen-affiliated registered investment advisers. Non-advisory activities are provided outside of NAM and TAL.

Endnotes

Source:

1 Market and economic data from Bloomberg

The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.

A word on risk

All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investing involves risk. Foreign investments are also subject to political, currency and regulatory risks. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A, and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC/CC/C and D are below-investment grade ratings. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets and foreign investing, including changes in economic conditions, currency values, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties. Socially Responsible Investments are subject to Social Criteria Risk, namely the risk that because social criteria excludes securities of certain issuers for non-financial reasons, investors may forgo some market opportunities available to those that don’t use these criteria. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the use of leverage, short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits. Alternative investments are not suitable for all investors and should not constitute an entire investment program. Investors may lose all or substantially all of the capital invested. The historical returns achieved by alternative asset vehicles is not a prediction of future performance or a guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that comparable returns will be achieved by any strategy.


This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID. In Europe this document is issued by the offices and branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited (reg. no. 2137726) or Nuveen UK Limited (reg. no. 08921833); (incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3BN), both of which entities are authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. Please note that branches of Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited or Nuveen UK Limited are subject to limited regulatory supervision by the responsible financial regulator in the country of the branch.

Nuveen provides investment advisory solutions through its investment specialists.