Robert C. Doll, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Chief Equity Strategist
Nuveen Asset Management, LLC

Weekly Investment Commentary

Equities Push Ahead Despite Softening Economic Growth


May 18, 2015
Download & Print: pdf  | 
Share: 
 

Key Points

  • U.S. economic growth remains slow, but we believe the overall state of the global economy remains solid.
  • Although rising yields and a pending shift in Fed policy may contribute to higher equity market volatility, we continue to advocate a pro-growth investment stance.

The continued advance in global bond yields dominated the financial story again last week, although this trend eased slightly by the end of the week. Economic data featured a relatively weak retail sales report. Notwithstanding these factors, U.S. equities advanced, with the S&P 500 Index hitting another record high as it gained 0.4%.1 The consumer staples, health care, industrials and technology sectors led the way, while energy was the worst-performing area of the market.1

 

Weekly Top Themes

  1. Retail sales figures are not climbing as anticipated. Despite solid employment gains, retail sales were flat for April, suggesting that consumers are continuing to save rather than spend.2 We expect spending levels to rise in the coming months, but the consumer sector is not currently helping growth as much as many anticipated.
  2. U.S. economic growth is not yet accelerating. Following a weak first quarter, most economic data suggest that the second quarter has not yet picked up noticeably. We would not be surprised to see first quarter gross domestic product growth revised lower. While the second quarter should be better than the first, those numbers may also be disappointing.
  3. It will be difficult for the "Goldilocks" investing backdrop to persist. For the past six years, investors enjoyed an economic backdrop strong enough to push most asset classes higher but not so strong that inflation or tightening monetary policy emerged as threats. With uneven economic growth and emerging signs of wage inflation, we believe the investing environment is becoming more difficult and that selectivity is growing in importance.
  4. Global growth prospects appear mixed. We expect Europe to become a stronger tailwind for the world economy thanks to low commodity prices, a cheaper euro and an accommodative central bank. In contrast, it looks to us like Chinese growth will continue to decelerate.
  5. Overall, we believe the global economy will improve in the coming months. The "stronger dollar/weaker commodities" trade that emerged in the middle of last year indicated investors were expecting global growth to be soft as deflation fears were rising. We have begun to see the strength of that trade diminish with deflation risks fading and growth prospects improving.
 

Investor Confidence Should Pick Up in the Coming Months

Concerns over deflation are fading as it becomes increasingly clear that global growth is recovering. Economic conditions around the world and in the United States remain uneven, but we still believe that Federal Reserve rate hikes are inevitable. As we approach the first rate increases, investor anxiety will likely increase as worries mount that the Fed will become too aggressive and act in a manner that is detrimental to economic growth. It may seem odd that this would become a concern considering how dovish the Fed has been and how much central bankers have focused on transparency. But the 2013 "taper tantrum" taught us that investors are prone to overreaction and that once yields start rising, many will become concerned about the possibility of deflation and economic stagnation.

Because of these concerns, one of the prominent near-term risks for equities is that bond yields will advance too quickly, which could trip up the stock market. We think such a scenario is unlikely. Improving global growth and a pending shift in Federal Reserve policy will put upward pressure on bond yields. But many regions of the world are still in an easing cycle, which should prevent yields from advancing too dramatically. For its part, the Fed should proceed cautiously so as not to risk slowing U.S. growth. Once the Fed starts to act, we believe investor confidence will rise. As such, we expect any setbacks in equities that result from rising rates to be temporary.

Likewise, we believe the dramatic volatility in currency and commodity markets is starting to fade. These markets remain unsettled and may continue to be choppy for some time, but should calm somewhat. Increased stability should provide a further boost to investor confidence. Overall, we acknowledge clear risks to the global economy, but we continue to advocate a pro-growth investment stance and favor overweight positions for equities.

 

1 Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 6/20/14
2 Source: Department of Commerce



 

Last Week's Commentary

Roadblocks to Equity Gains May Start to Fade


May 11, 2015
 

Key Points

  • U.S. and global economic growth should improve in the coming months, but areas of the world are still in need of policy support.
  • The advance in global bond yields should persist, but rates will likely move slowly and unevenly higher.
  • These factors suggest tailwinds for the equity market may strengthen later this year.

Investors had a lot to react to last week, with the biggest story being a continued rise in global bond yields. The Conservative Party secured an unexpectedly decisive victory in the U.K. elections and Fed Chair Janet Yellen commented about higher equity valuations. Chinese equities experienced their largest weekly sell-off in five years following an impressive eight-week winning streak.1 In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index gained 0.4% thanks to a strong rally on Friday following the release of April’s jobs data.1 Financials and health care were the best-performing sectors, while telecom and energy lagged.1

 

Weekly Top Themes

  1. The labor market appears to have moved from "great" to "good." The April jobs report showed 223,000 new jobs were created as the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4%,2 solid numbers that were in line with expectations. Beneath the surface, there were signs of some softness, as average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1%, and the average work week was unchanged.2 All told, the report shouldn’t change expectations for Fed rate hikes.
  2. Earnings are beating expectations, but overall growth is modest at best. Over 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, and earnings are ahead of expectations by about 7%, while revenues are in line.3 By the time the dust settles, current trends suggest first quarter revenue growth will be down 3%, earnings will be up 1% and earnings-per-share will be up 3%.3 Were it not for the energy sector, earnings growth would likely have advanced in the double-digit range.3
  3. Wage growth is accelerating. The Employment Cost Index, perhaps the best measure of wage inflation, has climbed by its fastest pace in six years.2 Over the past year, the overall Index has accelerated from 1.8% to 2.6%, with wages rising 2.5% and benefits 2.7%.2
  4. The long-term "dollar up/commodities down" trend will likely resume. This trend may have reached an extreme position earlier this year, and we have seen a reversal in recent weeks. While this reversal may have further to run, we have a long-term bullish view toward the dollar and believe commodities will remain under pressure.
  5. The macro backdrop still appears equity-friendly. First-quarter growth was weak, but we expect to see a rebound. The Fed is gearing up for rate increases (likely at some point in the fall), but such a shift is unlikely to be dramatic enough to cause long-term issues for equities. Corporate earnings are hardly robust, but have been better than feared. We expect conditions will improve in the coming months, which should allow for further advances in stock prices.
 

Equities Should Withstand Rising Global Bond Yields

U.S. equities fared relatively well in the first quarter despite softening growth. However, a different factor now threatens to disrupt the bull market: rising bond yields. Since economic sentiment has not yet fully recovered, the threat of higher rates is prompting some additional equity market volatility. U.S. Treasury yields fell earlier in the year in the face of weaker growth, but have since rebounded and are close to the same level where they began 2015.1 Outside of the United States, Europe is still recovering, although the pace may be tapering off. Japan is still struggling and requires a revival in global trade. And Chinese growth continues to slow. In all, we view the global economy as improving but still in need of policy support in many areas.

The good news for equities is that both U.S. and global growth appear to be improving. We expect government bond yields to rise in the coming months, however, which will put this area of the market under pressure. A combination of higher inflation expectations, solidifying global growth and a shift in Fed policy is likely to drive yields higher.

If bond yields were to rise quickly and dramatically, it could trigger an equity market correction. Given ample liquidity and still-easy global monetary policy, however, we are expecting a more benign bond yield advance. As such, we expect to see additional turbulence in equities when the Fed raises rates, but we believe this bull market still has room to grow.

 

1 Source: Morningstar Direct, and Bloomberg as of 5/8/15
2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3 Source: RBC Capital Markets



What Factors Make Active Equity Management Successful?

Read Bob’s paper on active management for insight.

Access now

Follow @BobDollNuveen on Twitter for up-to-date insight on the equity markets

Subscribe

Receive this commentary by email each week.



Bob Doll May 2015 Market Update

Bob discusses where he believes the equity markets may head.

Watch video



Nuveen Large Cap Equity Series: Overview

Nuveen Large Cap Equity Series: Overview

Bob provides an overview of the Large Cap Equity Series.

Watch video



A Word on Risk
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Non-investment-grade bonds involve heightened credit risk, liquidity risk, and potential for default. Foreign investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Certain information contained herein is based upon third-party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.

Nuveen Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an affiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc.

Not registered?

Register for access to investment team commentary, detailed portfolio information, and other advisor resources. For instant access, register now.

Your Contacts

Our goal is to deliver lasting value to our clients. For assistance, please call or email our advisor service team or contact your personal Nuveen Service Team.

Log in to nuveen.com to access your personal Nuveen Service Team.

Financial Advisors

800-752-8700
Email

Registered Investment Advisors

800-558-4487

Account Access

For more information on Mutual Fund Vision, FAN Mail, or accessing client accounts, please visit our advisor account access page.

Advisor Access

Investor Access